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Tracking trends in American public opinion, this study examines moods of public policy over time. James Stimson looks at shorter term movements as the public approves or disapproves politicians, trusts or distrusts government. His book is distinctive in that it focuses on determining the unobserved true opinion that lies beneath superficial polls. It argues that public opinion is decisive in American politics and identifies the citizens who produce influential change as a relatively small subset of the American electorate.

List of Tables and Figures page ix

Preface: The Shutdown xi

  On Point of View xvii

  On How the Book Came to Be Written xviii

  On Truth, Objectivity, and Spin xix

Acknowledgments xxi

1 Opinion Flows

  September 11

  Policy Preferences

  So, What’s New?

  A Theory of Public Opinion

  Some Postulates about Opinion Movement

  Design of the Book

2 What the Public Wants from Government

  Thinking about Public Opinion

  Absolute and Relative

  Means and Ends

  What Are the C***iderati***? Policy Domains

  Some Newer Policy Conflicts

3 Left and Right Movements in Preference

  The Issue Evolution Theory of Issue Alignment

  Three Issue Evoluti***

  Preferences for Liberalism and C***ervatism

  Ideology: Operational and Symbolic

4 The Great Horse Race: Finding Meaning in Presidential

Campaigns

  The Lore of Presidential Campaigns: Three Stories

  Do the Polls Predict Presidential Electi***?

  So, What Really Matters?

  Party Nominating Conventi***

  Candidate Debates

5 Between the Campaigns: Public Approval and Disapproval of

Government

  The Presidency

  U.S. Senators

  Governors

  Trust in Government

  Is Approval Generic?

6 On Politics at the Margin

  A Tale of Three Electi***

  Who Accounts for Change in American Politics?

  The Rhythms of Opinion: A Rec***ideration

  On Marginal Democracy

Bibliography

Index

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　　Politics is a trial in which those in government - and those

who ***ire to be - make proposals, debate alternatives, and pass

laws. Then the jury of public opinion decides. It likes the

proposals or acti*** or it does not. It trusts the actors or it

doesn't. It moves, always at the margin, and then those who benefit

from the movement are declared winners. This book is about that

public opinion resp***e. Its most basic premise is that although

pubic opinion rarely matters in a democracy, public opinion change

is the exception. Public opinion rarely matters, because the public

rarely cares enough to act on its concerns or preferences. Change

happens only when the threshold of normal public inattention is

crossed. When public opinion changes, governments rise or fall,

electi*** are won or lost, old realities give way to new

demands.

　　? Complete account of American public opinion ? Emphasis is on

motion ? Written with no jargon or technology

书籍介绍

Tracking trends in American public opinion, this study examines moods of public policy over time. James Stimson looks at shorter term movements as the public approves or disapproves politicians, trusts or distrusts government. His book is distinctive in that it focuses on determining the unobserved true opinion that lies beneath superficial polls. It argues that public opinion is decisive in American politics and identifies the citizens who produce influential change as a relatively small subset of the American electorate.