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Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their c***equences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clea***arning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligati*** in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligati*** airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patr*** in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley

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Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their c***equences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clea***arning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligati*** in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligati*** airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patr*** in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley

Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

点击链接进入中文版：

未雨绸缪:可预见的危机及其防范